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| docordimen1975 |
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| At the moment, Almansa would probably go fourth in a mock info draft of the players who played in this game, but he has a legitimate case to be a top-10 pick based on his productivity and ease of fit in a modern offense. He came off the bench in both games, but one suspects he’ll be starting for Ignite before long. Free CFB Picks Buzelis also was a bit too ambitious attacking bigs at the rim, getting stuffed on consecutive tries by Sarr in the first game. Again, these are two September games, and on balance, Buzelis didn’t play badly; none of this is overly damning, and he still projects as a top pick, especially given his size and skill combo. But the chance was there to make a larger impression, and it didn’t happen. The top five picks went 3-2 and the consensus choice in each game produced nine wins and six losses when we eliminate the Thursday game that was already played when the data came out. Using a weighted average of the picks -- 1,963 hypothetical units on the Browns, 1,944 on the Steelers, etc. -- they would have gone 9,818-67,67 for a very nice 59.2 percent success rate and a return on investment (ROI) of 13.0 percent assuming -110 on every wager. That sounds great, but when I went back and tested that methodology on 2022 results, it did rather poorly, with an overall ROI of -5.79 percent. |
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